The Absolute Value of 4 Starts

While the remnants of Hurricane Gustav pummeled Chicago yesterday, an audible sigh of relief was heard from Cubs fans not only here but everywhere. Big Z is going to miss one start. I admit that I’m surprised, and I also admit that I thought he was done for the season. Not that I had let that sink in or anything. Carlos Zambrano simply doesn’t take himself out of games in the 5th inning. That more than the missed MRI appointment on Wednesday freaked me out. Carlos taking himself out still freaks me out, because in my opinion there’s more truth in the few words that he spoke to Larry Rothchild than in the hundreds of words in the Trib story linked above. My worries aren’t unique. After all, if you’re not a Cubs pitcher injury conspiracy theorist, you’re either not a Cubs fan or you’re under the age of 2.

So despite what the men in white coats scrawl on the Tribune Prescription Pad (I mean website), I propose that we (at least in spirit) take Carlos’ obvious arm pain over the word of the doctor on the team’s payroll and just count Big Z out for September. Count him out. Wind him down. Give him a yard and a hammock. Let him take naps in between rounds of kicking soccer balls at passing cars. All figuratively speaking, of course.

This expect-nothing attitude has done a world of good for me when it comes to seeing crappy movies at the theater with my wife. Pluto Nash was a great experience for me. It can work for the Cubs, right?

Because really…what’s the value of 4 starts for Carlos this month? If he gets them (and it sounds like he’s going to), I figure he’ll go an average of 6 innings and will give up on average 3 runs in those 4 starts. It’s not that much different than what Marshall would do if given those 4 starts, which I’d predict to be 5 1/3 innings and roughly 3.5 runs on average. Either way the bullpen is entering the game in the 6th inning most of these games, with either 2 outs or 0 outs, respectively. The personnel in the Cubs bullpen after the call ups this week scream “clean inning” to me more than they do 2-out situations. I’d feel much better giving Angel Guzman, Kevin Hart, Michael Wuertz, Jon Lieber or even Jeff Samardzija the ball to open the 6th instead of in the middle of the inning with a runner or two that Big Z walked on the bases.

So the main difference to me or the “value” in starting Zambrano over Marshall (or others) is that it’s an opportunity for one of the bullpen studs to come in and have a chance to get Carlos out of a jam. After witnessing the ups and downs of this bullpen in ‘08, thought, it’s hard to tell if that value is positive or negative.

Time will tell.